Recently, improve as the incline to of western country economy such as the United States, hot money begins to withdraw burgeoning economy system, include China. Have analytic personage concern, hot Qian Liu gives a likelihood to bring about venture of banking of aggravate of burst of bubble of value of our country asset, to this, concerned expert points out, hot money evacuate will be influential to our country economy, north face shirtsbut lift do not remove great storms. Because our country economy is basic the side is still good, direct to the foreign trader investment still has appeal; In the meantime, compare with appthe best selling modern dining chairsearance of system of other and burgeoning economy, chinese economy scale is large, hot money runs away won't shake the stability of Chinese economy.
Hot money runs away evidence is clear
Hot money withdraws rising market country to be behaved above all in Asia-Pacific stock market. According to the report, on June 11, thailand stock market steeps fall 5 ％ , philippine stock market steeps fall 4.6 ％ , indonesian stock market steeps fall 3.9 ％ .
Global capital tracks an orgnaization firwatch casesm of research of fund of rising market investment (EPFR) is newest the first phase data that publish shows, be in up to a week June 5 inside, the fund that has more than 4 billion dollar promotes the evacuate in market share fund anew. Meanwhile, since from inside Chinese stock fund the quantity obtained the fund of evacuate nearly 5 years the most large-scale, achieved nearly 10 years from the capital of evacuate of fund of Hong Kong stock highest.
It is reported, foreign currency and price of rising market bond is in this money the corresponding period drops greatly, make loan cost farther rise. Economist Yu Fenghui says, recently, the market between Chinese country bank has appeared for two times the least capital is indescribable in short supply, interest rate of short-term loan of of the previous night is climbed even rise the perch of 9% , this perhaps is financial venture omen.
The United States exits QE to anticipate intense
Where is hot money advantageous beneficial is gotten toward where. Before, euramerican economy is stagnant, hot money flowed to red-blooded burgeoning economy system quickly. Yu Fenghui says, global banking crisis and Europe debt crisis are brought about develop economic system economy of the United States, Europe is for instance low fan, anabiosis slow. Develop economic system to stimulate native economy, carry out quantify comfortable with the monetary policy that exceeds low interest rate. And the state issues the depression of economy of many dollar home that its give off to be absorbed very hard, in the meantime, rising market country gets financial crisis the influence is relatively minor, these fluidity moneys are entered in a large-scale. brass faucet
Why does hot money withdraw in succession again? "Hot money goes, main because of western country economic stability, economy to good trend apparent " , and south Sun Huayu of professor of university international business school says when accepting our newspaper reporter to interview, in the meantime, latent capacity of progress of economy of country of a few rising markets is not very tall, hot money get better closes, so hot money came home.
Rising market secures whole world of beautiful Yin Meilin accrual is in charge of Aerbeituo·A Desi points out, capital still is in 3 weeks before flow into rising market sbrass faucettock market, because after this is right beautiful couplet store anticipate produce a change, capital flow direction produced chawatch case openerngeover. Once beautiful couplet store begin to exit policy, the stock market fluidity of rising market can be tightened up.
Foreign capital still values China
Ever had made the hot money of false prosperity to place country, what effect will once withdraw,produce? The expert points out, hot money withdraws to cause stock market of rising market nation likely, collect city and debt city to drop greatly, yu Fenghui thinks, support exceeds the economic finance asset that delivers goods short-term sth used to one's own advantage blows money and international " bubble " ground of final meeting callosity is undone, and the evacuation of international capital often is a fuse.
China alfree norton internet antivirusso wants vigilance to heat up money to withdraw a risk. Yu Fenghui reminds say, once rising market erupts,heat up the financial venture that money withdraws, so, chinese general be tthe most popular north face shirtshe first to be affected. China is the first selection ground that international hot money enters. He says, look from the stock market and building city, the stock market may be to detonate a dot, but real financial risk is on building city. Once heat up money to withdraw China in a large-scale, estate bubble risk will be very fast be pricked to defeat, cause venture of whole economy banking then.
Also the expert points out, hot money withdraws influential to China, but lift do not have too great storm. The analysis says Sun Huayu, above all, bubble of Chinese stock market is not quite apparent, die dish of probability is small; Next, although estate market has bubble, but basically foreign capital is not caused, just needed dimensions to exceed foreign capital to buy amount, price however advanced home element creates profit of business of tall, construction; The 3rd, investor of the orgnaization outside bureau qualification place is being run outside (QFII) the forehead is spent increasing, explain foreign capital values Chinese economy to develop for a long time, short-spring poolterm inside won't withdraw.
Sun Huayu expresses, hot money withdraws dimensions of the credit that may affect China, money, but this can be overcome, china can adjust monetary policy independently, relax monetary policy appropriately.
"Hot money withdraws to be hit to country of other and rising market big, can make their asset value drops, affect the vigor of whole economy, but small to Chinese influence, because Chinese economy actual strength is strong, at present although economy is added fast drop, but compare with the national posture such as system of other and buvancouver to harrison hot springsrgeoning economy and United States, economic growth rate of China is high still " , in the meantime, sun Huayu points out, charrison hot spring dealhinese economy is basic the side is good, direct to the foreign trader investment is charming, those who run away is short-term heat money, of long-term investment or stability.
(The People's Daily is abroad edition)
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