Sunday, January 15, 2012

Media is analytic China " Qian Huang " : Either doing not have money is to put a fault place

New capital signs up for dispatch (reporter Su Manli) yesterday, committee of Central Bank monetary policy is announced 2013 content of regular meeting of the 2nd quarter, carry again " optimize financial natural resources to configure, with good increment, dish put an amount alive " . This was on June 8 since half month time, the State Council and Central Bank do this the 3rd times to make known one's position. The expert thinks, this made clear a government " would rather sacrifice speed, it is good economic structural adjustment to also want " determination.

Continue firm monetary policy

The market between near future bank goes cash shortage disturbance, it is usually in people look most " not poor money " the bank appears " Qian Huang " . Last week 4, a person of same business between bank of Shanghai of of the previous night is torn open put interest rate (Shibor) again all fronts rises, interest rate exceeds 10% first, achieve 13.44% , this numerical value achieves the history new tall, capital interest rate dish in be as high as 30% even, the market exclamations " can comparing is usurious " , and Ji Wang Central Bank can put bit of water, relax monetary policy.

The Central Bank insisted to express yesterday, below one phase " will continue to implement firm monetary policy " , "In keep stability of macroscopical economic policy, successional while, optimize financial natural resources to configure, with good increment, dish put an amount alive, stronger n holds economic structural adjustment and transition to upgrade, serve hypostatic economy to develop better, do good banking venture more solidly to be on guard. Do good banking venture more solidly to be on guard..

Since this month, the high level has made known his position for many times " with good increment, dish put an amount alive " . Economy of province of annulus Bohai Sea was managed on June 8 when working informal discussion, li Kejiang of premier of the Sthe most popular selling norton internet antivirustate Council puts forward " put a quantity to support hypostatic economy to develop through activation money credit " , after this is in on June 19, li Kejiang chairs held the State Council standing conference puts forward again " with good increment, dish put an amount alive, stronger n holds economic transition to upgrade " .

The expert says governmental attitude demonstrates determination

University of central finance and economics teachs Guo Tianyong to think, "Qian Huang " the problem basically results from the capital structure of the commercial bank is unreasonable, silver-colored behavior seeks more profit, invest a large number of capital to accrual taller domain. The question with Chinese the at present biggest economy is stray bullet too much, a large number of moneys did not hit bull's eye, flow to existence bubble however, produce can superfluous field.

Current, our country money puts an amount not low. End travel data shows, in May end, RMB deposit remaining sum is 99.31 trillion yuan, approach two hundred and seventy-six million four hundred and i want modern brass faucetdining chairsforty-seven thousand two hundred and thirty-two yuan to close greatly, but throw the money to hypostatic economy the quantity is not hopeful, economy anabiosises however strength is faint, the limit effect that the money drives economy to growthe best selling watch cases is smaller and smaller.

"The manner of Chinese government has made clear, speed would rather sacrifice in the development in future, it is good economic structural adjustment to also want, in order to promote long-term development of economy. " Guo Tianyong says, the commercial bank also should have structural adjustment, the capital in handle has been used, let cast to more reasonable, expand a service for hypostatic economy better thereby.

■ substantival explanation

A person of same business between Shanghai bank is torn open put interest rate (abbreviation Shibor)

Center of short-term loan of a person of same business between the countrywide bank with be located in Shwatch casesanghai is calculated for technical platform, release and name, it is the arithmetical and average interest rate that the RMB a person of same business that by credit grade taller bank composition quotes round own newspaper goes out tears open an interest rate computation to decide, it is simple interest, without assure, wholesale sex interest rate. Current, the Shibor variety that announces to the society includes of the previous night, 1 week, 2 9 6 3 a week, month, months, months, months reach 1 year.

■ explore because

"Qian Huang " either doing not have money is to put a fault place

Monetary supply is ample, many society financing did not throw hypostatic economy in the center

"Qian Huang " the most popular keyword in making instantly China economy. Capital market begins to face the awkward situation that capital pours out of, the each finance data that nevertheless Central Bank of not long ago publishs gives a person with disparate feeling.

According to the statistical data that the two Central Banks before week publish, although integral monetary policy keeps dovish, but May M2 (supply of broad sense money) add compared to the same period fast be as high as 15.8% as before, add credit newly to measure tall still look forward to, what RMB deposit remaining sum also has approached two hundred and seventy-six million four hundred and forty-seven thousand two hundred and thirty-two yuan is big close.

Is China in really experience a fluidity constrictive " Qian Huang " ?

It is the bank lacks cash at the same time, the stock market lacks cash, medium and small businesses lacks cash; But it is however on the other hand, monetary supply is ample, many large companies still move ostentatious, buy product of bank conduct financial transactions in great quantities, idle fund still is seeking the concept of hype, folk is leasehold as before wind wind fire.

Two-phase contrast discovers not hard, of at present " Qian Huang " look seem oncoming force feral, actually is the structural sex fund that fault of a capital distributes to bring about nfree modern dining chairservous. Not be to do not have money, however money did not appear in proper place.

Come a few years, chinese economy is in the condition with a kind of ample liquidity to fall from beginning to end. Meanwhile, the ratio of the M2 in macroscopical data and GDP is in however ceaseless amplification, to this year first quarter, m2 and GDP ratio are close already 200% , this means a money to pumodern dining chairst in what grow to economy to urge action ceaseless and abate, also go out from report of a flank, many social financing did not throw hypostatic economy actually.

Look in the personage inside many course of study and economist, bring about financial industry is at present brief quality " Qian Huang " the element is very complex, this has the effect that international economy environment changes among them: As American economy time firm anabiosis, beautiful couplet store metage changes loose policy to will be exited gradually, make the speed of capital outflow begins to accelerate.

Besides, the element that leverage of interior of Chinese banking system magnifies ceaselessly is to not allow to ignore more, a large number of capital invest through lever under the operation in financial orgnaization and time complex form a complete set takes benefit difference, capital gets profit in move back and forth of each financial interagency loop, "Shadow bank " be popular while, also make the risk builds up ceaselessly.

"Qian Huang " rear, what need to think more is not the problem that has money, however the issue that how should money use.

According to report of Xinhua News Agency

■ fictitious casenorth face shirts

Where did money go?

Where did money go? We are fictitious fiducial manager Xiaozfree watch casehang comes to —— of a character citing explains. Two years income increased Xiaozhang in the past very fast, he participated in a lot of projects. Have real estate, have equity industrial and commercial and fiducial, fiducial.

Among them, the project of one picket residence that has a certain city lacks cash, xiaozhang finds this company, be in charge of doing a fiducial product of 2 billion to join this project, the land that uses this project and building property right make pledge, guaranty is led 50% . Design year turn get one's own back 11% , deadline 2 years.

Next the Li Zong that he finds such-and-such bank to save subsidiary bank, look for him to sell. Taking a project to look for Li Zong so, still Xiaosong, Xiaoliu, Xiaowang is waited a moment, the Li Zong of the bank recalls a way, he bales these products to client put on sale, offer a client with the redound of 8% .

Passed one year again, a few clients of the bank should borrow money, but the bank has put borrow tthe best selling modern dining chairshan, capital leads superintendency demand amply, had not approved give loan. How to do? The bank finds trust company conversely again, I use your channel, you make a product, I come to money.

This is the last few years be mentioned time and again " the business outside the watch " . How does if appear,short-term fund do not quite? Go between the bank the market is adjusted, many 1400 bank of Chinese kind financial orgnaization amid mutual loan.

Be in before, when each bank money is insufficient, the bank can spend faster price borrow or lend money, expression comes out even if market money rate rises; At this moment the Central Bank can alleviate through putting in capital.

Now is the Central Bank puts in more moneys to the market no longer, appeared then tight situation. The Central Bank thinks, dish vthe most popular norton internet antivirusivid " put an amount " more important, namely caution bank, call in those put a fault local money. New capital signs up for reporter Wu Min

On June 8

When chairing informal discussion of job of economy of province of Bohai Sea of call together open loop, li Kejiang of premier of the State Council puts forward " put a quantity to support hypostatic economy to develop through activation money credit " .

With day, a person of same business between bank of Shanghai of of the previous night is torn open put interest rate (Shibor) go up to 9.581% .

On June 13

Shanghai points to steep fall 2.83% , close at 2148.36 bits.

On June 19

Li Kejiang chairs call together to open the State Council put forward again when standing conference " with good increment, dish put an amount alive, stronger n holds economic transition to upgrade " .

On June 20

A person of same business between bank of Shanghai of of the previous night is torn open put interest rate (Shibor) go up to 13.444% .

With day, shanghai points to steep fall 2.77% , close at 2084.02 bits.

On June 23

The Central Bank releases summary of monetary policy regular meeting, put forward " optimize financial natural resources to configure, with good increment, dish put an amount alive, stronger n holds economic structural adjustment and transition to upgrade " .

(New capital signs up for)

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